BEIJING- A sobering report from 19FortyFive.com proposes that China may attempt to invade Taiwan sometime in the next six months, likely toward the end of that time period.
Citing intelligence sources, the possibility of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) invading Taiwan, which it considers part of its sovereign territory, is regarded as a question of “not if, but when.”
Over the past several years, China has engaged in a series of “harassment activities” against Taiwan in what Sir Alex Younger, former chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, calls “a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassement,’ or a “case study for understanding the aspects of ‘grey zone’ type warfare,” the outlet wrote.
The outlet describes “grey zone” warfare as being similar to tactics imposed by the PRC and Russia against nations in Europe and Asia, including sabotage of undersea infrastructure, election interference, and disinformation through digital means.
Tensions between Beijing and the United States have been strained by recent trade issues. President Trump imposed strict sanctions on China, and Beijing then retaliated, engaging in a back-and-forth series of actions. Trump has accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices and said the tariffs are designed to level the playing field. In response, the Chinese ambassador to the US made an ambiguous threat that the PRC was ready for “any type of war” with the US, which led some to believe he was threatening a military conflict with the US.
That statement has led some experts to believe that Chinese officials may believe now is the right time to move against Taiwan, “as the opening round” to a direct conflict with the United States.
Experts who spoke to 19FortyFive believe such an attempt by China is no less than six months distant.
Those intel sources further told the outlet that the “six months from now” time frame is due to a belief among Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership that the Trump administration will be “unwilling or unable” to prevent such a move on Taiwan by the CCP and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. and former California legislator Chuck DeVore is currently floating three possible scenarios: “a patient choke, a lightning grab, or full chaos.”
The first option, DeVore proposes, would be a complete blockade of Taiwan, noting the Chinese Navy would ring the island “like a steel noose, turning the Taiwan Strait into a kill zone. Of course, 90 percent of Taiwan’s food and all its natural gas come by ship. Snip that lifeline and the island will starve for months. No invasion, no blood-soaked beaches, just a slow strangulation.”
The second possibility would see extensive Chinese missile strikes on Taiwan’s defenses, overwhelming its Patriot and other missile defense systems. Along with those strikes, China would employ “patriotic hackers,” whose mission would be to crash Taiwan’s power grid and shut down the internet and phone networks. Chinese troops would simultaneously storm the island’s beaches.
DeVore wrote that since there is a 12-hour time difference between Taiwan and Washington, D.C., all of the above could transpire “before the US wakes up.’ He said Beijing’s goal would be to “seize [the capital] Taipei in days and present the world with a done deal.”
The final possibility, the so-called “doomsday scenario,” paints the worst possible scenario.
Under such a case, China would launch an attack not only on Taiwan, but would also attack US military bases in Japan, Guam, and the Philippines. Remember Joe Biden’s open borders and the tens of thousands of military-aged Chinese men who entered the US, as LET reported on several times? While US forces are occupied in the Pacific, “20,000 or more men of military age smuggled into the US under the protocols of President Joe Biden’s open border begin attacks [in the interior US] in conjunction with Mexican cartels.” Conservatives and law enforcement experts feared this exact scenario as Biden’s open borders let millions of unvetted, illegal aliens into the country.
Under this scenario, the US would lose control of the southern border, primarily at border crossing points, and sabotage attacks take place in border states, with simultaneous attacks on the US power grid.
Such an attack, DeVore highlights, was actually proposed in the 1917 Zimmerman Telegram, when Imperial Germany “tried to sic Mexico on the US to distract it from World War I–even sending military advisors to Mexico. Britain cracked the code, and America declared war on Germany.”
Under the “doomsday scenario,” the thought is “unleashing unrestricted warfare splits US attention, buys invasion [of Taiwan] time, and tests alliance resolve. But it’s a high-risk gamble, especially if caught before launch. Further, the US may gain by rallying worldwide outrage, reinforcing global leadership, and punishing China economically.”
The question is, will China actually go after Taiwan? Some believe the pokes and prods by China against Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for an invasion of the island. So says Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command. Will China act within six months?
“America’s edge lies in vigilance, allies, and the will to slug it out if needed,” DeVore concluded. “China’s gamble? Picking the right play and hoping friction doesn’t lead to ruination.”
